When UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2024 was released in October 2024, the global shipping industry was already navigating a complex scenario. The report explored the forces shaping global shipping, from the growing role of digital tools to efforts to streamline trade, improve port operations, and adapt to shifting supply chains. However, in just a few months, the geopolitical and economic landscape has shifted dramatically—calling into question some of the assumptions and projections made in the report.
From escalating U.S. trade wars to major shifts in global port ownership, let’s examine how recent developments are reshaping maritime transport and what this means for charterers, supply chain professionals, and demurrage managers.
1. Trade Wars: New Disruptions to Supply Chains
One of the key themes of UNCTAD’s 2024 report was the role of trade facilitation and global cooperation in reducing barriers to maritime commerce. However, the United States’ aggressive tariff strategy—which has now expanded to include higher duties on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports—is directly disrupting commodity flows and reconfiguring supply chain dynamics.
- UNCTAD’s 2024 Outlook: The report assumed that trade facilitation measures, such as improved customs clearance and digitalized trade processes, would streamline cross-border trade and reduce inefficiencies. The expectation was that nations would continue efforts to simplify clearance procedures and reduce bottlenecks.
- What’s Happening Now: Rather than streamlining global trade, the U.S. tariff escalations are creating fragmentation—particularly in energy and bulk commodity transport. With 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and new duties on Chinese goods, companies are re-evaluating supply chains, adjusting cargo flows, and shifting trade routes to mitigate risk—petroleum imports from Canada are subject to a reduced tariff rate of 10% to mitigate potential increases in gasoline prices in the US. These disruptions increase uncertainty in freight planning and demurrage exposure, making predictive analytics and AI-driven logistics more essential than ever.
2. Geopolitics and Global Port Control
Another key assumption in UNCTAD’s 2024 analysis was that port efficiency and infrastructure development would be driven by technological advancements and investment in logistics hubs. However, the recent acquisition of major ports in the Panama Canal region by U.S. investment funds has introduced a new geopolitical dimension to maritime transport.
- UNCTAD’s 2024 Outlook: The report emphasized that improving port efficiency and digitalization—through initiatives such as Port Community Systems and automated customs processes—would be key to enhancing global trade flows. The assumption was that ports would continue evolving toward a more data-driven, transparent model.
- What’s Happening Now: The strategic purchase of Panamanian port infrastructure by U.S. investors signals a potential shift in maritime power dynamics, as the U.S. seeks to secure trade routes and exert greater control over key logistics chokepoints. This could have far-reaching consequences for energy shipments, dry bulk commodities, and tanker logistics, as port access and operational priorities may now be influenced by political and economic considerations rather than purely efficiency-driven strategies.
3. The Rise of AI & Digitalization: From Optimism to Urgency
The 2024 UNCTAD report highlighted the importance of AI, digital workflows, and predictive analytics in optimizing trade logistics, streamlining customs clearance, and reducing inefficiencies. However, while the report positioned digitalization as a long-term trend, recent disruptions have accelerated the need for AI-driven solutions in maritime logistics.
- UNCTAD’s 2024 Outlook: The report discussed the growing role of automation and AI-driven platforms in optimizing supply chains. However, it assumed a gradual adoption curve, where companies would incrementally integrate AI solutions over the coming years.
- What’s Happening Now: With markets shifting so quickly, AI-powered tools are becoming less of a luxury and more of a practical advantage. Companies are using predictive analytics to get ahead of potential demurrage costs, spot port congestion risks early, and adjust contracts as conditions change. It’s not about replacing human expertise—it’s about giving teams the right insights at the right time to make smarter decisions and stay competitive in a volatile landscape.
Forward: The Road to a More Resilient Maritime Industry in 2025
The rapid evolution of trade policies, port ownership dynamics, and AI adoption in just a few months demonstrates how quickly maritime markets can shift. Many of UNCTAD’s 2024 assumptions—though insightful—are now being challenged by real-world developments.
For charterers, supply chain professionals, and demurrage managers, the key takeaway is clear:
Flexibility, real-time insights, and AI-driven decision-making are no longer optional—they’re essential to staying ahead in an unpredictable trade environment. |
This shift will be a major topic at The Demurrage Innovation Forum | Houston, 2025, where industry leaders will explore how AI-driven contract management, digital workflows, and real-time analytics are transforming operational efficiency. As trade wars, port reconfigurations, and policy shifts continue to unfold, the ability to adapt quickly will define the winners in maritime logistics.
